Forex Trading

November 20, 2009

15:27
Image Caption: Forex currency price chart of AUD and USD Image: Body: Big pull back in Global stocks U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) was very strong for most of the day as stocks around the world suffered from heavy profit taking and concerns of new bubbles in assets. Weekly Jobless claims were at forecasts of 505k whilst the November Philly Fed Index was stronger at 16 vs. 11.5 previously. In US Stocks, DJIA -93 points closing at 10332, S&P -15 points closing at 1094 and NASDAQ -36 points closing at 2156. European Euro The Euro (EUR) was very heavy as USD strength and EUR/JPY selling that continued for much of the day. A slight reprieve at the end of the US session allowed the pair to reclaim the 1.4900 level. A much touted 1.48-1.51 DNT option is though to expire today which could allow for a break of the recent range next week. Overall the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.4842 and a high of 1.4958 before closing at 1.4900. Looking ahead, October German PPI is forecast at 0.1% vs. -0.5% previously. Japanese Yen (JPY) The Japanese Yen (JPY) was the strongest currency yesterday on risk aversion demand. Liquidation of AUD/JPY and GBP/JPY guided the USD/JPY below 89 Yen. Stock markets and US bond yields are the main factors affecting the Yen at the moment. Overall the USDJPY traded with a low of 88.63 and a high of 89.46 before closing the day around 88.95 in the New York session. Looking ahead, BOJ meeting today. Pound Sterling (GBP) The Sterling (GBP) was under pressure on most pairs as the risk sensitive currency struggled in a souring global market. Oil was under pressure and continued bad press about UK banks weighed on the Pound. October Retail Sales were at 0.4% vs. 0.5% forecast. Overall the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.6604 and a high of 1.6744 before closing the day at 1.6640 in the New York session. Australian Dollar (AUD) The Australian Dollar (AUD) slumped for the second day as traders booked profit from the recent rally and commodities apart were very weak. AUD/JPY selling and a mixed technical outlook are beginning to weigh although should sentiment improve the Aussie is prone to bounce first. Overall the AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.9130 and a high of 0.9285 before closing the US session at 0.9180. Oil & Gold Oil & Gold (XAU) held up well as safe haven flows offset gains in the USD. Overall trading with a low of USD$1130 and high of USD$1146 before ending the New York session at USD$1141 an ounce. Weakened as investor sentiment turned 'risk off'. Crude Oil was down -$2.12 ending the New York session at $77.46. Technical Analysis: Global Stocks Suffered From Heavy Profit Taking Euro (EUR) Euro – 1.4920 : Initial support at 1.4808 (Nov 17 low) followed by 1.4786 (0.618 of 1.4624-1.5049). Initial resistance is now located at 1.5016 (Nov 16 high) followed by 1.5048 (Nov 11 high). Yen (JPY) Yen – 89.00 : Initial support is located at 88.64 (Nov 19 low) followed by 88.36 (Oct 9 low). Initial resistance is now at 89.75 (Nov 16 high) followed by 90.60 (Nov 16 high). Pound Sterling (GBP) Pound – 1.6640 : Initial support at 1.6572 (Nov 13 low) followed by 1.6516 (Nov 12 low). Initial resistance is now at 1.6878 (Nov 16 high) followed by 1.7043 (Aug 5 high). Australian Dollar (AUD) Australian Dollar – 0.9180 : Initial support at 0.9092 (Nov 6 low) followed by the 0.8971 (Nov 4 low). Initial resistance is now at 0.9337 (Nov 18 high) followed by 0.9406 (Nov 16 high). Gold (XAU) Gold – 1141 : Initial support at 1127 (Nov 17 low) followed by 1118 (Nov 16 high). Initial resistance is now at 1152 (Nov 18 high) followed by 1165 (1.618 of 985 - 1070.80 from 1026.60). Oil Oil – 78.30 : Initial support at 78.00 (Intraday support) followed by 76 (Intraday support). Initial resistance is now at 80 (key level) followed by 82 (October high). Article with Image: Full Size Image occupying Whole width of Column
Categories: Forex Trading

November 19, 2009

16:34
Image Caption: Forex currency price chart of XAU and USD Image: Body: Gold Trades above $1150 U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) eased for most of the day as the recent strength proved temporary and US stocks remained well supported near highs. Fed Speaker Bullard did little to help the USD with his comments that US rates may stay low until 2012. October CPI at 0.3% vs. 0.2% forecast. October Housing starts -10.6% vs. 1.9% previously. In US Stocks, DJIA -11 points closing at 10426, S&P -1 points closing at 1109 and NASDAQ +10 points closing at 2193. Looking ahead, Weekly Jobless Claims forecast at 505k vs. 502k previously. Also released, November Philly Fed forecast at 12 vs. 11.5 previously. European Euro The Euro (EUR) was once again very strong as USD strength subsided and constant buying kept the single currency in demand. Good rallies in the EUR/JPY and EUR/GBP also provided solid support. September Current Account came in at -5.4bn vs. 0.6bn previously. Overall the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.4868 and a high of 1.4992 before closing at 1.4965. Japanese Yen (JPY) The Japanese Yen (JPY) was a mixed bag as USD/JPY managed small gains but GBP/JPY and AUD/JPY remained on the back foot. Risk appetite is still strong but most pairs are sticking to well know ranges whilst the USD/JPY remains very quiet. Overall the USDJPY traded with a low of 88.99 and a high of 89.51 before closing the day around 89.40 in the New York session. Pound Sterling (GBP) The Sterling (GBP) was sold aggressively against the EURO and USD as the MPC minutes showed a split in the vote of how much the QE asset purchase program should be extended. MPC Member Miles called for a greater amount of 40bn vs. the 25bn Pounds eventually agreed too. Overall the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.6712 and a high of 1.6849 before closing the day at 1.6745 in the New York session. Looking ahead, October Retail Sales forecast at 0.5% vs. 0.0% previously. Australian Dollar (AUD) The Australian Dollar (AUD) rallied on the back of Euro's and Golds gains but was capped by weaker US stocks. The pair is consolidating gains as the market takes a breath from the relentless rallying over the past 2 weeks. Most AUD crosses have been treading water as fresh buying is being offset from profit taking. Overall the AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.9264 and a high of 0.9340 before closing the US session at 0.9295. Looking ahead, RBA Assistant Governor Debelle Speaks. Oil & Gold Oil & Gold (XAU) traded at fresh year highs above $1150 before settling on profit taking. Overall trading with a low of USD$1135 and high of USD$1153 before ending the New York session at USD$1145 an ounce. Oil was higher on a drop in US crude Inventories. Crude Oil was up $0.40 ending the New York session at $79.50. Technical Analysis: US Stocks Remained Well Supported Euro (EUR) Euro – 1.4950 : Initial support at 1.4808 (Nov 17 low) followed by 1.4786 (0.618 of 1.4624-1.5049). Initial resistance is now located at 1.5016 (Nov 16 high) followed by 1.5048 (Nov 11 high). Yen (JPY) Yen – 89.45 : Initial support is located at 88.36 (Oct 9 low) followed by 88.00 (Big Figure). Initial resistance is now at 89.75 (Nov 16 high) followed by 90.60 (Nov 16 high). Pound Sterling (GBP) Pound – 1.6725 : Initial support at 1.6670 (Nov 16 low) followed by 1.6572 (Nov 13 low). Initial resistance is now at 1.6878 (Nov 16 high) followed by 1.7043 (Aug 5 high). Australian Dollar (AUD) Australian Dollar – 0.9290 : Initial support at 0.9237 (Nov 17 low) followed by the 0.9211 (Nov 12 low). Initial resistance is now at 0.9406 (Nov 16 high) followed by 0.9476 (Jul 31 '08 high). Gold (XAU) Gold – 1143 : Initial support at 1127 (Nov 17 low) followed by 1118 (Nov 16 high). Initial resistance is now at 1150 (Key Level) followed by 1165 (1.618 of 985 - 1070.80 from 1026.60). Oil Oil – 79.60 : Initial support at 78.00 (Intraday support) followed by 76 (Intraday support). Initial resistance is now at 80 (key level) followed by 82 (October high). Article with Image: Full Size Image occupying Whole width of Column
Categories: Forex Trading

November 18, 2009

17:02
Image Caption: Forex currency price chart of EUR and USD Image: Body: EURO bows to resurgent USD U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) took charge of the market with Bernanke's comments being endorsed by ECB President Trichet to send the EURO lower and USD stronger across the board. Even as US stocks closed at year highs, risk was taken off the table as US data was weaker than expected. October Industrial Output was 0.1% vs. 0.4% forecast. In US Stocks, DJIA +30 points closing at 10437, S&P +1 points closing at 1110 and NASDAQ +6 points closing at 2203. Looking ahead, October Housing starts forecast at 0.6mn vs. 0.59mn previously and October Building Permits forecast at 0.58mn vs. 0.575mn previously. Also released, Weekly Oil Inventories is forecast at 1.2mn vs. 1.8mn previously. Also released, October Core CPI is forecast at 0.1% vs. 0.2% previously m/m. European Euro The Euro (EUR) tested 1.5000 in early Asia before the mood soured and the pair fell back due to profit taking. This pullback turned in a rout in Europe with Trichet's comments that Bernanke's strong USD comments were 'very important'. Overall the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.4805 and a high of 1.5001 before closing at 1.4875. looking ahead, September Current Account previously at -1.3bn. Japanese Yen (JPY) The Japanese Yen (JPY) weakened against the resurgent USD but was strong on the crosses as risk aversion from falling stocks saw AUD/JPY liquidation from recent highs. EUR/JPY and GBP/JPY are also treading water as the market trying to decipher the next direction. Overall the USDJPY traded with a low of 88.72 and a high of 89.56 before closing the day around 89.30 in the New York session. Pound Sterling (GBP) The Sterling (GBP) was support on dips as EUR/GBP selling underpinned cable and buyers gained the upper hand. 1.7000 is the natural target for the bulls, last traded in August before the BoE started increasing the Asset Purchase program. October CPI was 1.5% vs. 1.4% y/y. Overall the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.6753 and a high of 1.6876 before closing the day at 1.6820 in the New York session. Looking ahead, MPC minutes forecast at 9-0 on recent meeting decisions. Australian Dollar (AUD) The Australian Dollar (AUD) was very heavy as the market took profit from lofty heights after the RBA minutes failed to inspire. The minutes left the decision to raise rates in December open with further data releases look set to decide. Providing continued support however is the commodity rally and already wide AUD-USD interest rate differential. Overall the AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.9310 and a high of 0.9379 before closing the US session at 0.9236. Oil & Gold Oil & Gold (XAU) dipped with USD strength but was bought back up quickly underpinning the support the precious metal is receiving. Overall trading with a low of USD$1127 and high of USD$1145 before ending the New York session at USD$1143 an ounce. Tracked Stocks and Metals higher. Crude Oil was up $0.24 ending the New York session at $79.14. Technical Analysis: Euro Tested 1.5000 In Early Asia Euro (EUR) Euro – 1.4875 : Initial support at 1.4808 (Nov 17 low) followed by 1.4786 (0.618 of 1.4624-1.5049). Initial resistance is now located at 1.5016 (Nov 16 high) followed by 1.5048 (Nov 11 high) Yen (JPY) Yen – 89.25 : Initial support is located at 88.36 (Oct 9 low) followed by 88.00 (Big Figure). Initial resistance is now at 89.75 (Nov 16 high) followed by 90.60 (Nov 16 high). Pound Sterling (GBP) Pound – 1.6820 : Initial support at 1.6670 (Nov 16 low) followed by 1.6572 (Nov 13 low). Initial resistance is now at 1.6878 (Nov 16 high) followed by 1.7043 (Aug 5 high). Australian Dollar (AUD) Australian Dollar – 0.9310 : Initial support at 0.9211 (Nov 12 low) followed by the 0.9196 (Nov 9 low). Initial resistance is now at 0.9406 (Nov 16 high) followed by 0.9476 (Jul 31 '08 high). Gold (XAU) Gold – 1143 : Initial support at 1118 (Nov 16 low) followed by 1101 (Nov 13 high). Initial resistance is now at 1144 (Nov 16 high) followed by 1150 (Big Level). Oil Oil – 79.50 : Initial support at 78.00 (Intraday support) followed by 76 (Intraday support). Initial resistance is now at 80 (key level) followed by 82 (October high). Article with Image: Full Size Image occupying Whole width of Column
Categories: Forex Trading

November 17, 2009

18:57
Body: Fresh Risk Appetite hurts USD Last week’s Currency Trading Review The Dollar continued to lose ground as US stocks markets soared to year highs and Gold traded to fresh all time highs. Economic data was light but multiple FED speakers all re-emphasized that US rates will remain low for some time. Weekly Jobless Claims improved to 502k vs. 512k forecast. Trade Balance -36.5bn vs. -31.8bn forecast. UoM consumer Sentiment fell to 66 vs. 71.1 previously. The Euro was volatile but ended higher as stocks helped to lift whilst weak Oil contained gains. Solid resistance above 1.5000 is proving hard to break for the time being. German ZEW Economic Sentiment slumped to 51.1 vs. 55.2 forecast and 56 previously. Preliminary EU Q3 GDP was weaker than expected at 0.4% vs. 0.6% forecast. The EUR/USD gained 0.41% closing at 1.4906, after opening the week at 1.4845. The Japanese Yen once again kept to tight ranges against the USD but weakened across most other pairs as improving risk appetite caused high yielding pairs such as the AUD/JPY to be bought. September Core Machinery Orders improved 10.5% vs. 3.4% forecast. The USD/JPY fell -0.25% closing at 89.66 after opening the week at 90.88. The GBP continued to shrug off the best efforts of the BoE to keep the Pound under pressure. BoE Governor King in the Inflation report once again talked of the weak GBP helping the UK economy to recover via exports. Claimant Count Change was strong at 12.9k vs. 20.2k forecast. GBP/USD gained 0.42% closing at 1.6681 after opening at 1.6611. The AUD gained heavily on the back of gold and US stocks rallying but was also aided by strong economic data. October Employment improved by +24.5k vs. -10.1k forecast and September Home loans improved by 5% vs. 3% forecast. The AUD/USD gained 1.52% at 0.9328 after opening at 0.9186. For the week starting 16/11/09. This Forex Trading Week Preview In the States; On Tuesday, October Industrial Production is forecast at 0.4% vs. 0.7% previously. Also released, Oct PPI forecast at -1.7% vs. -4.8% y/y. On Wednesday, October CPI is forecast at 0.3% vs. -0.9% previously. Also released, October Building Permits are forecast at 580k vs. 573k previously. On Thursday, Weekly Jobless Claims are forecast at 504K vs. 502k previously. On Friday, Philly Fed is forecast at 12 vs. 11.5 previously. We will provide our previews and reviews of these data releases in the daily summary. In the Eurozone; On Tuesday, ECB President Trichet Speaks. On Wednesday, EU September Current account is released previously at -1.3bn. On Friday, October German PPI is forecast at -7.5% vs. -7.6% previously. In the UK; On Tuesday, October CPI is forecast at 1.4% vs. 1.1% previously y/y. On Wednesday, BoE minutes are forecast to show 9-0 vote. On Thursday, October Retail Sales are forecast at 2.9% vs. 2.4% previously y/y. We will provide our previews and reviews of these data releases in the daily summary. In Japan; On Friday, BOJ meet to discuss rates and are expected to hold at 0.1%. In Australia; On Tuesday, RBA minutes. On Wednesday, Q3 Wage Cost index forecast at 0.7% vs. 0.8% previously Q/Q. We will provide our previews and reviews of these data releases in the daily summary. Technical Analysis: US Stocks Markets Soared To Year Highs Euro (EUR) Euro – 1.4930 : Initial support at 1.4822 (Nov 12 low) followed by 1.4786 (0.618 OF 1.4624-1.5049). Initial resistance is now located at 1.5048 (Nov 11 high) followed by 1.5063 (Oct 26 high) Yen (JPY) Yen – 89.60 : Initial support is located at 89.46 (Nov 13 low) followed by 89.20 (Nov 2 low). Initial resistance is now at 90.60 (Nov 12 high) followed by 91.32 (Oct 29 high). Pound Sterling (GBP) Pound – 1.6710 : Initial support at 1.6516 (Nov 12 low) followed by 1.6402 (Nov 4 low). Initial resistance is now at 1.6843 (Nov 9 high) followed by 1.7043 (Aug 5 high). Australian Dollar (AUD) Australian Dollar – 0.9340 : Initial support at 0.9211 (Nov 12 low) followed by the 0.9196 (Nov 9 low). Initial resistance is now at 0.9370 (Nov 12 High) followed by 0.9476 (Jul 31 ' 08 high). Gold (XAU) Gold – 1125 : Initial support at 1095 (Nov 9 low) followed by 1087 (Nov 6 high). Initial resistance is now at 1129 (1026.60 plus 0.618 of 905.10-1070.80) followed by 1136 (1.618 retrace 930.34 - 1024.28 through 985). Oil Oil – 76.80 : Initial support at 75.00 (Key level) followed by 74 (Intraday support). Initial resistance is now at 78 (Intraday resistance) followed by 80 (Key Level).
Categories: Forex Trading
18:14
Image Caption: Forex currency price chart of GBP and USD Image: Body: Bernanke Comments on Dollar U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) was on the back foot for most of the day as Global equities remained buoyant in the wake of the APEC meeting confirming stimulus and declining to comment on the USD. Fed Chief Bernanke did however support the dollar and for a short period in the US session the USD surged off fresh year lows as the market digested his comments. Doubts about the conviction of the FED to support the dollar though saw these gains pared back into the close with stock markets finishing at fresh Year highs. US retail Sales were strong at 1.4% in October vs. 0.9% forecast. In US Stocks, DJIA +136 points closing at 10406, S&P +15 points closing at 1109 and NASDAQ +29 points closing at 2197. Looking ahead, US October PPI is forecast at 0.6% vs. -0.6% previously. European Euro The Euro (EUR) had a wild trading day gaining heavily with stocks and oils but was pummeled lower on Bernanke's pro USD comments before reversing these losses to make fresh highs above 1.5000. October EU CPI was at 0.3% as forecast. EUR/JPY struggled to track the improved risk appetite as USD/JPY dived to month lows. Overall the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.4879 and a high of 1.5018 before closing at 1.4975. looking ahead, September EU Trade Balance forecast at -0.9Bn vs. 1.0Bn previously. Japanese Yen (JPY) The Japanese Yen (JPY) was broadly strong as the USD/JPY melted on Dollar concerns below the 89 Yen level. Most crosses struggled to hold gains with even the risk trade AUD/JPY struggling to maintain gains whilst stocks were at year highs and gold continued to surge. Japan Q3 GDP at 1.2% vs. 0.7% forecast. Overall the USDJPY traded with a low of 88.73 and a high of 89.73 before closing the day around 89.10 in the New York session. Pound Sterling (GBP) The Sterling (GBP) was very solid rallying up to fresh month highs above 1.6800 on continued cross recovery and generally strong risk appetite. EUR/GBP broke below 0.8900 support and GBP/JPY continued to test the 150 Yen level. Overall the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.6667 and a high of 1.6881 before closing the day at 1.6830 in the New York session. Looking ahead, October CPI is forecast at 1.4% vs. 1.1% previously. Australian Dollar (AUD) The Australian Dollar (AUD) broke above 0.9400 for fresh year highs as risk appetite and the weak USD pushed the commodity currency higher. Adding to the rally was Oil and golds large moves higher with the only risk stemming from the speed of the recent AUD rise and the technically overbought conditions this brings. Overall the AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.9315 and a high of 0.9408 before closing the US session at 0.9375. Looking ahead, RBA Minutes released from November's meeting are important for clues of December potential rate rise. Oil & Gold Oil & Gold (XAU) rallied with little reprieve all day. Overall trading with a low of USD$1122 and high of USD$1144 before ending the New York session at USD$1138 an ounce. Played catch up with commodities and general risk appetite. Crude Oil was up $2.55 ending the New York session at $78.90. Technical Analysis: Pound Rallied Up To Fresh Month Highs Euro (EUR) Euro – 1.4975 : Initial support at 1.4822 (Nov 12 low) followed by 1.4786 (0.618 of 1.4624-1.5049). Initial resistance is now located at 1.5048 (Nov 11 high) followed by 1.5063 (Oct 26 high) Yen (JPY) Yen – 89.10 : Initial support is located at 88.73 (Nov 16 low) followed by 88.00 (Big Figure). Initial resistance is now at 90.60 (Nov 12 high) followed by 91.32 (Oct 29 high). Pound Sterling (GBP) Pound – 1.6825 : Initial support at 1.6572 (Nov 13 low) followed by 1.6519 (Nov 12 low). Initial resistance is now at 1.6843 (Nov 9 high) followed by 1.7043 (Aug 5 high). Australian Dollar (AUD) Australian Dollar – 0.9375 : Initial support at 0.9211 (Nov 12 low) followed by the 0.9196 (Nov 9 low). Initial resistance is now at 0.9476 (Jul 31 ' 08 high) followed by 0.9637 (Jul 24 '08 high). Gold (XAU) Gold – 1138 : Initial support at 1101 (Nov 13 low) followed by 1095 (Nov 9 high). Initial resistance is now at 1144 (Nov 16 high) followed by 1150 (Big Level). Oil Oil – 78.90 : Initial support at 78.00 (Intraday support) followed by 76 (Intraday support). Initial resistance is now at 80 (key level) followed by 82 (October high). Article with Image: Full Size Image occupying Whole width of Column
Categories: Forex Trading
02:00
Image Caption: Forex currency price chart of USD and JPY Image: Body: USD Weakness Resumes U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) gave back most of the gains from Thursday as US stocks rebounded and Gold led the charge higher. US Trade deficit in September widened to -$36.5bn vs. -$31bn forecast. University of Michigan Consume Sentiment was also weaker at 66 vs. 70.6 previously. In US Stocks, DJIA +73 points closing at 10270, S&P +6 points closing at 1093 and NASDAQ +18 points closing at 2167. Looking ahead, September Business Inventories forecast at -0.6% vs. -1.5% previously. European Euro The Euro (EUR) Found support and recovered through the day to finish above the 1.4900 figure. Risk was tentatively put back on throughout the day although EUR/JPY struggled as USD/JPY losses matched the EUR/USD gains. EU GDP was slightly less than forecast at 0.4% vs. 0.5% forecast. Overall the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.4826 and a high of 1.4936 before closing at 1.4915. looking ahead, October EU inflation is forecast at 0.3% vs. 0.0% previously. Japanese Yen (JPY) The Japanese Yen (JPY) strengthened against the USD and was well supported against most pairs with investors less keen to buy crosses into the weekend. The 90 Yen level has been the key figure in the market recently with buyers below and sellers above creating a very tight range. Overall the USDJPY traded with a low of 89.47 and a high of 90.41 before closing the day around 89.63 in the New York session. UPDATE Q3 GDP at 1.2% vs. 0.75 forecast. Pound Sterling (GBP) The Sterling (GBP) rallied with the improvement in risk appetite after finding solid support inside the 1.65 figure on Thursday. The pair finished near 1.6700 with the EUR/GBP testing support at 0.8920 as the Pound recovery continued. Overall the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.6572 and a high of 1.6705 before closing the day at 1.6690 in the New York session. Australian Dollar (AUD) The Australian Dollar (AUD) rallied the most of the majors as gold recovered and the high yielding pair took advantage of strong sentiment towards the AUD after recent strong economic data. The pair is still strongly correlated with the stock markets but dips are finding solid support keeping the bias higher. Overall the AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.9225 and a high of 0.9343 before closing the US session at 0.9341. Oil & Gold Oil & Gold (XAU) opened under pressure but found support near $1100 and recovered for the rest of the day. Overall trading with a low of USD$1102 and high of USD$1119 before ending the New York session at USD$1118 an ounce. Continued to slump as demand came into question. Crude Oil was down -$0.59 ending the New York session at $76.35. Technical Analysis: US Stocks Rebounded Euro (EUR) Euro – 1.4930 : Initial support at 1.4822 (Nov 12 low) followed by 1.4786 (0.618 OF 1.4624-1.5049). Initial resistance is now located at 1.5048 (Nov 11 high) followed by 1.5063 (Oct 26 high). Yen (JPY) Yen – 89.60 : Initial support is located at 89.46 (Nov 13 low) followed by 89.20 (Nov 2 low). Initial resistance is now at 90.60 (Nov 12 high) followed by 91.32 (Oct 29 high). Pound Sterling (GBP) Pound – 1.6710 : Initial support at 1.6516 (Nov 12 low) followed by 1.6402 (Nov 4 low). Initial resistance is now at 1.6843 (Nov 9 high) followed by 1.7043 (Aug 5 high). Australian Dollar (AUD) Australian Dollar – 0.9340 : Initial support at 0.9211 (Nov 12 low) followed by the 0.9196 (Nov 9 low). Initial resistance is now at 0.9370 (Nov 12 High) followed by 0.9476 (Jul 31 ' 08 high). Gold (XAU) Gold – 1125 : Initial support at 1095 (Nov 9 low) followed by 1087 (Nov 6 high). Initial resistance is now at 1129 (1026.60 plus 0.618 of 905.10-1070.80) followed by 1136 (1.618 retrace 930.34 - 1024.28 through 985). Oil Oil – 76.80 : Initial support at 75.00 (Key level) followed by 74 (Intraday support). Initial resistance is now at 78 (Intraday resistance) followed by 80 (Key Level). Article with Image: Full Size Image occupying Whole width of Column
Categories: Forex Trading

November 13, 2009

16:09
Image Caption: Forex currency price chart of AUD and USD Image: Body: USD strong as Stocks pull back U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) gained across the board as USD shorts covered on the back of falling stocks and comments from Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao that the global recovery road will be bumpy. Also supporting the dollar was very weak Oil and comments from US Treasurer Geithner about a strong US dollar policy and the cutting of US deficits. Weekly Jobless claims were 502k vs. 510k forecast. In US Stocks, DJIA -93 points closing at 10197, S&P -11 points closing at 1087 and NASDAQ -17 points closing at 2149. Looking ahead, September Trade Balance forecast at -31bn vs. -30bn previously. European Euro The Euro (EUR) was heavily sold against the greenback and the Pound as Oil and stocks slumped in the US session. EUR/JPY held up well though as the Yen was also sold against the USD quite aggressively. EUR/GBP slipped back through 0.9000 as the recent pound weakness provided a buffer against further losses overnight. September Industrial Production is forecast at 0.4% was slightly weaker at 0.3%. Overall the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.4820 and a high of 1.5018 before closing at 1.4850. looking ahead, Q3 GDP forecast at 0.8% vs. 0.3% previously. EU Q3 GDP forecast at 0.5% vs. -0.2% previously. Japanese Yen (JPY) The Japanese Yen (JPY) weakened against the USD as the key 90 Yen level was broken on the topside and senior MOF officials stated that exit strategies were still some time away as the Japanese consumer remains weak. Overall the USDJPY traded with a low of 89.63 and a high of 90.63 before closing the day around 90.35 in the New York session. Looking ahead, September Industrial Output previously at 1.4%. Pound Sterling (GBP) The Sterling (GBP) held up surprisingly well to USD strength with EUR/GBP selling and GBP/JPY buying offsetting to keep cable relatively unchanged. Ongoing support from M&A activity and general investment in to UK firms is providing an undercurrent of support for the Pound. Overall the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.6513 and a high of 1.6629 before closing the day at 1.6570 in the New York session. Australian Dollar (AUD) The Australian Dollar (AUD) was hurt the most as the market was caught wrong footed after surging to fresh year highs in Asia to 0.9370 on the back of strong October Employment numbers showing +24k jobs vs. -10k forecast. When US stocks turned south and Oil crumbled the market liquidated and reversed the days direction to plumb 4 day lows. Overall the AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.9210 and a high of 0.9372 before closing the US session at 0.9230. Oil & Gold Oil & Gold (XAU) pulled back nearly $20 an ounce from fresh year highs as the USD strengthened across the board. Overall trading with a low of USD$1102 and high of USD$1123 before ending the New York session at USD$1104 an ounce. Was sold heavily after US oil inventories rose more than expected. Crude Oil was down -$1.73 ending the New York session at $77.55. Technical Analysis: Stocks Pull Back Euro (EUR) Euro – 1.4850 : Initial support at 1.4811 (Nov 5 low) followed by 1.4800 (Key Level). Initial resistance is now located at 1.5063 (Oct 26 high) followed by 1.5163 (0.764 retrace of 1.5063-1.4624). Yen (JPY) Yen – 90.35 : Initial support is located at 89.62 (Nov 6 low) followed by 89.20 (Nov 2 low). Initial resistance is now at 90.60 (Nov 12 high) followed by 91.32 (Oct 29 high). Pound Sterling (GBP) Pound – 1.6580 : Initial support at 1.6532 (Nov 12 low) followed by 1.6519 (Nov 6 low). Initial resistance is now at 1.6843 (Nov 9 high) followed by 1.7043 (Aug 5 high). Australian Dollar (AUD) Australian Dollar – 0.9255 : Initial support at 0.9211 (Nov 12 low) followed by the 0.9196 (Nov 9 low). Initial resistance is now at 0.9476 (July 31 08 high) followed by 0.9637 (Jul 31 high). Gold (XAU) Gold – 1105 : Initial support at 1095 (Nov 9 low) followed by 1087 (Nov 6 high). Initial resistance is now at 1129 (1026.60 plus 0.618 of 905.10-1070.80) followed by 1136 (1.618 retrace 930.34 - 1024.28 through 985). Oil Oil – 76.90 : Initial support at 75.00 (Key level) followed by 74 (Intraday support). Initial resistance is now at 78 (Intraday resistance) followed by 80 (Key Level). Article with Image: Full Size Image occupying Whole width of Column
Categories: Forex Trading

November 12, 2009

16:18
Image Caption: Forex currency price chart of GBP and USD Image: Body: Pound Hit by King's comments U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) hit fresh lows on the dollar index breaking through 75 to fresh lows this year. Gold continued to edge higher in light trade with the US away. Stocks finished higher across the board but the USD did mange to bounce off lows with Pound losses leading the way. In US Stocks, DJIA +44 points closing at 10291, S&P +5 points closing at 1098 and NASDAQ +15 points closing at 2166. Looking ahead, Weekly Jobless claims forecast at 510k vs. 512k previously. Also released, Crude Oil Inventories forecast at 1.1 vs. -4mn barrels. European Euro The Euro (EUR) stayed in the upper range but a short foray into the 1.5040-50 region was quickly repelled with talk of heavy profit taking and central bank selling capping gains. With year highs close by the market is remaining quite long although should 1.5000 continue to contain they may get impatient. Support is located at 1.4950. Overall the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.4952 and a high of 1.5050 before closing at 1.4980. looking ahead, September Industrial Production is forecast at 0.4% vs. 0.9% previously. Japanese Yen (JPY) The Japanese Yen (JPY) found strength in Asia after September Machine orders rose over 10% in a sign the worst of the financial crisis was over for the worlds second largest economy. USD/JPY slipped to 89.30 by early Europe before rallying hard with the crosses to test the key 90 Yen. Overall the USDJPY traded with a low of 89.27 and a high of 90.06 before closing the day around 89.85 in the New York session. Looking ahead, CGPI forecast at -0.1% in October. Pound Sterling (GBP) The Sterling (GBP) was under heavy selling pressure as BoE Governor King was once again extremely dovish and left the door open for further expansion of the Asset Purchases program. Also hurting the GBP was his reiteration that a weak Pound would help the UK to an export led recovery. October Claimant Count forecast at 20k was better than expectations at 12.9k. Overall the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.6534 and a high of 1.6801 before closing the day at 1.6560 in the New York session. Australian Dollar (AUD) The Australian Dollar (AUD) hit year high above 0.9330 as US stocks traded at fresh year highs and the commodity currency tracked gold upwards. November Consumer Confidence was -2.5% as interest rate rises dampened the consumer mood. Overall the AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.9270 and a high of 0.9346 before closing the US session at 0.9290. Looking ahead, October Employment is forecast at -10k vs. 40k previously. The Unemployment Rate is forecast at 5.8% vs. 5.7% previously. Oil & Gold Oil & Gold (XAU) continued the upwards trend for fresh year highs. Overall trading with a low of USD$1105 and high of USD$1119 before ending the New York session at USD$1117 an ounce. Ended higher but was rejected from the key $80 a barrel level. Crude Oil was down +0.23 ending the New York session at $79.30. Technical Analysis: GBP Was Under Heavy Selling Pressure Euro (EUR) Euro – 1.4975 : Initial support at 1.4939 (Nov 10 low) followed by 1.4853 (Nov 9 low). Initial resistance is now located at 1.5063 (Oct 26 high) followed by 1.5163 (0.764 retrace of 1.5063-1.4624). Yen (JPY) Yen – 89.75 : Initial support is located at 89.62 (Nov 6 low) followed by 89.20 (Nov 2 low). Initial resistance is now at 90.86 (Nov 4 high) followed by 91.32 (Oct 29 high). Pound Sterling (GBP) Pound – 1.6545 : Initial support at 1.6519 (Nov 6 low) followed by 1.6467 (Nov 5 low). Initial resistance is now at 1.6843 (Nov 9 high) followed by 1.7043 (Aug 5 high). Australian Dollar (AUD) Australian Dollar – 0.9285 : Initial support at 0.9256 (Nov 10 low) followed by the 0.9196 (Nov 9 low). Initial resistance is now at 0.9476 (July 31 08 high) followed by 0.9637 (Jul 31 high). Gold (XAU) Gold – 1115 : Initial support at 1095 (Nov 9 low) followed by 1087 (Nov 6 high). Initial resistance is now at 1129 (1026.60 plus 0.618 of 905.10-1070.80) followed by 1136 (1.618 retrace 930.34 - 1024.28 through 985). Oil Oil – 79.30 : Initial support at 78.00 (Intraday Support) followed by 75 (key Level). Initial resistance is now at 80 (Intraday resistance) followed by 82 (Oct High). Article with Image: Full Size Image occupying Whole width of Column
Categories: Forex Trading

November 11, 2009

14:45
Image Caption: Forex currency price chart of XAU and USD Image: Body: Markets Consolidate Gains U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) gained in Asia as profit taking set in but this proved short lived as stocks in the US eked out small gains to bring the rally into its 7th day. Little data was released but five Fed officials did speak throughout the day with the general message of prolonged low rates helping to support the market on dips. In US Stocks, DJIA +20 points closing at 10246, S&P +0 points closing at 1093 and NASDAQ -3 points closing at 2151. Looking ahead, Bank holiday for Veterans Day. European Euro The Euro (EUR) struggled to hold above 1.5000 as profit taking in Asia and Oil losses in the US session capped gains. Support at 1.4950 emerged and the pair kept to a tight range for the rest of the day. EUR/JPY selling ahead of 135 Yen is also posing a challenge for the bulls. November German Zew Survey at 51.1 vs. 55 forecast. Overall the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.4937 and a high of 1.5022 before closing at 1.4980. looking ahead, French Bank Holiday. Japanese Yen (JPY) The Japanese Yen (JPY) kept to a very tight range around the 90 level as bouts of USD weakness was countered by fresh cross demand. Support at 89.70 is proving solid but attempts above the 90 level are equally short lived. AUD/JPY remains well supported with most of the volatility as usual seen on the GBP/JPY. October Current Account at 1568bn vs. 1530bn forecast. Overall the USDJPY traded with a low of 89.67 and a high of 90.21 before closing the day around 89.80 in the New York session. Looking ahead, September Machine Orders are forecast at 2.9% vs. 0.5% previously. Pound Sterling (GBP) The Sterling (GBP) was shunted lower at the start of Europe on the back of a Fitch sovereign downgrade warning. The pair spent the rest of the day recovering off lows. September Trade Balance forecast at -6.1bn came in weaker at -7.194bn. EUR/GBP briefly popped above 0.9000 but later slipped back below the key handle. Overall the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.6600 and a high of 1.6791 before closing the day at 1.6730 in the New York session. Looking ahead, October Claimant Count forecast at 20k vs. 20.8k previously. September ILO Unemployment forecast at 8.0% vs. 7.9% previously. Australian Dollar (AUD) The Australian Dollar (AUD) consolidated Monday's gains nicely with dips being well supported and risk appetite remaining strong. October NAB Business Confidence 16 vs. 14 previously. AUD/NZD is a cross in play with the pair trying to break through resistance at 1.2650 on route to the key 1.3000 level. Overall the AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.9254 and a high of 0.9326 before closing the US session at 0.9300. Looking ahead, November Consumer Confidence previously at 1.7%. Oil & Gold Oil & Gold (XAU) was quiet but closed above the $1100 level. Overall trading with a low of USD$1096 and high of USD$1109 before ending the New York session at USD$1103 an ounce. Came off on profit taking and the downgrading of storms threatening production. Crude Oil was down -$1.13 ending the New York session at $78.30. Technical Analysis: Oil & Gold Closed Above The $1100 Level Euro (EUR) Euro – 1.4975 : Initial support at 1.4853 (Nov 9 low) followed by 1.4811 (Nov 5 low). Initial resistance is now located at 1.5063 (Oct 26 high) followed by 1.5163 (0.764 retrace of 1.5063-1.4624). Yen (JPY) Yen – 89.75 : Initial support is located at 89.62 (Nov 6 low) followed by 89.20 (Nov 2 low). Initial resistance is now at 90.86 (Nov 4 high) followed by 91.32 (Oct 29 high). Pound Sterling (GBP) Pound – 1.6735 : Initial support at 1.6519 (Nov 6 low) followed by 1.6467 (Nov 5 low). Initial resistance is now at 1.6843 (Nov 9 high) followed by 1.7043 (Aug 5 high). Australian Dollar (AUD) Australian Dollar – 0.9295 : Initial support at 0.9196 (Nov 9 low) followed by the 0.9092 (Nov 6 low). Initial resistance is now at 0.9329 (Oct 21 high) followed by 0.9476 (Jul 08 high). Gold (XAU) Gold – 1103 : Initial support at 1087 (Nov 6 low) followed by 1080 (Nov 4 high). Initial resistance is now at 1111 (Nov 9 high) followed by 1129 (1026.60 plus 0.618 of 905.10-1070.80). Oil Oil – 79.00 : Initial support at 78.00 (Intraday Support) followed by 75 (key Level). Initial resistance is now at 80 (Intraday resistance) followed by 82 (Oct High). Article with Image: Full Size Image occupying Whole width of Column
Categories: Forex Trading

November 10, 2009

20:59
Body: Fed hold rates low for an 'extended period' of time Last week’s Currency Trading Review The Dollar was on the back foot giving up most the of gains from the week before as risk was turned back 'on' after the Federal Reserve kept rates at 0.25% and stated they would keep rates low for an extended period of time. A greater than expected rise in the October Unemployment Rate to 10.2% could not stem the positive sentiment. ISM Manufacturing jumped to 55.7 vs. 52.6 previously. The Euro rebounded off multi week lows at 1.4630 to test 1.4900 on the back of a strong rally in equities and the ECB keeping rates at 1.0% but scaling back liquidity measures in a sign of confidence for the European economy. The EUR/USD gained 0.84% closing at 1.4846, after opening the week at 1.4722. The Japanese Yen was roughly unchanged against the Dollar but lost ground against most currencies as risk appetite picked up and investors searched for higher yields. GBP/JPY and AUD/JPY were especially well supported. The USD/JPY fell -0.26 % closing at 89.87 after opening the week at 90.10. The GBP gained heavily on Thursday after the BoE kept rates at 0.5% and only increased the Quantitative easing program by 25bn pounds. EUR/GBP continued to fall as the GBP gains outpaced the Euro settling comfortable below the key 0.9000 level. GBP/USD gained 1.01% closing at 1.6611 after opening at 1.6444. The AUD was the major gainer after the RBA increased rates by 0.25% and stocks markets and gold continued to rally aggressively. Also helping on Friday was the RBA monetary Policy statement which raised economic targets. The AUD/USD gained 2.10% at 0.9180 after opening at 0.8987. For the week starting 10/11/09. This Forex Trading Week Preview In the States; Quiet Data week with Veterans day on Wednesday. Weekly Jobless claims are forecast at 510k vs. 512k previously. On Friday, September Trade Balance is forecast at -31.6bn vs. -30.7bn previously. Also released, UoM forecast at 71 vs. 70.6 previously. We will provide our previews and reviews of these data releases in the daily summary. In the Eurozone; On Monday, September German Industrial Production is forecast at 1.2% vs. 1.7%. On Tuesday, German Zew is forecast at 55 vs. 56 previously. On Thursday, September EU Industrial Production is forecast at 0.5% vs. 0.9% previously. On Friday, German GDP is forecast at 0.8% vs. 0.3% previously. EU Q3 GDP is forecast at 0.6% vs. -0.2% previously. In the UK; On Tuesday, Trade Balance forecast at -6100mn vs. -6240mn previously. On Wednesday, ILO Unemployment rate forecast at 8.0% vs. 7.9% previously. Also released, BoE Quarterly Inflation Report. We will provide our previews and reviews of these data releases in the daily summary. In Japan; On Wednesday, September Machine Orders are forecast at 4.1% vs. 0.5% previously. On Friday, September Industrial Production previously at -18.9%. In Australia; On Thursday, October Unemployment is forecast at 5.8% vs. 5.7% previously with a drop of -10k jobs. We will provide our previews and reviews of these data releases in the daily summary. Technical Analysis: USD Was On The Back Foot Euro (EUR) Euro – 1.4870 Initial support at 1.4811 (Nov 5 low) followed by 1.4702 (Nov 4 low). Initial resistance is now located at 1.4927 (Oct 27 high) followed by 1.4959 (0.764 retrace of 1.5063-1.4624) Yen (JPY) Yen – 89.85 Initial support is located at 89.62 (Nov 6 low) followed by 89.20 (Nov 2 low). Initial resistance is now at 91.32 (Nov 4 high) followed by 91.62 (Oct 29 high). Pound Sterling (GBP) Pound – 1.6650 Initial support at 1.6467 (Nov 5 low) followed by 1.6402 (Nov 4 low). Initial resistance is now at 1.6693 (Oct 23 high) followed by 1.6742 (Sept 11 high). Australian Dollar (AUD) Australian Dollar – 0.9210 Initial support at 0.9026 (Nov 5 low) followed by the 0.8971 (Nov 4 low). Initial resistance is now at 0.9218 (Oct 27 high) followed by 0.9329 (Oct 21 high). Gold (XAU) Gold – 1098 Initial support at 1084 (Nov 5 low) followed by 1080 (Nov 4 high). Initial resistance is now at 1101 (Nov 6 high ) followed by 1107 (905.10 plus 1.618 of 864.97-990.00). Oil Oil – 77.80 : Initial support at 76.50 (Intraday Support) followed by 75 (key Level). Initial resistance is now at 78 (Intraday resistance) followed by 80 (Key Level).
Categories: Forex Trading
20:40
Image Caption: Forex currency price chart of EUR and USD Image: Body: Global Stocks Rally, USD Weak U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) a global stock rally led most pairs to gain against the greenback as investors searched for higher yielding investments. AUD and NZD were especially strong with the highest interest rates of the major currencies. Gold rallied past $1100 for fresh all time highs. In US Stocks, DJIA +203 points closing at 10226, S&P +23 points closing at 1093 and NASDAQ +41 points closing at 2154. Looking ahead, FOMC members Yellen and Lockhart speak. European Euro The Euro (EUR) grinded higher for most of the day as the USD was under pressure finally breaking above the key 1.5000 level in the US session on remarks from ECB's Stark that in the December meeting they will discuss exit strategies. September German Trade at 9.9bn vs. 11.5bn forecast. Overall the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.4852 and a high of 1.5022 before closing at 1.4995. looking ahead, November ZEW Index forecast at 55 vs. 56 previously. Japanese Yen (JPY) The Japanese Yen (JPY) was unchanged against the USD trading around the 90 Yen level. Crosses were all higher as risk appetite kept AUD/JPY and NZD/JPY in strong demand. EUR/JPY found strong resistance at 135 Yen. Overall the USDJPY traded with a low of 89.72 and a high of 90.29 before closing the day around 89.90 in the New York session. UPDATE October Current Account at 1568bn vs. 1530bn forecast. Pound Sterling (GBP) The Sterling (GBP) surged past Friday's high as the market sold the USD aggressively in Asia. The pair struggled to hold above 1.6800 and pulled back to the low 1.67's by the end of New York. EUR/GBP hit 6 week lows below 0.8900. Overall the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.6615 and a high of 1.6846 before closing the day at 1.6730 in the New York session. Looking ahead, September Trade Balance forecast at -6.1bn vs. -6.24bn previously. Australian Dollar (AUD) The Australian Dollar (AUD) was very strong along with its cousin the New Zealand Dollar. The Aussie opened above 0.9200 and rallied as Home Finance surged 5% in October. AUD/NZD reversed from above 1.26 as Kiwi rebounded nicely from last weeks sell off. Overall the AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.9194 and a high of 0.9321 before closing the US session at 0.9290. UPDATE October NAB Business Confidence 16 vs. 14 previously. Oil & Gold Oil & Gold (XAU) traded at fresh year highs above $1110 on continued USD weakness. Overall trading with a low of USD$1095 and high of USD$1111 before ending the New York session at USD$1102 an ounce. Gained with the large rally in US stocks. Crude Oil was up $2.37 ending the New York session at $79.80. Technical Analysis: USD Weak Euro (EUR) Euro – 1.4995 : Initial support at 1.4811 (Nov 5 low) followed by 1.4702 (Nov 4 low). Initial resistance is now located at 1.5063 (Oct 26 high) followed by 1.5163 (0.764 retrace of 1.5063-1.4624) Yen (JPY) Yen – 89.85 : Initial support is located at 89.62 (Nov 6 low) followed by 89.20 (Nov 2 low). Initial resistance is now at 90.86 (Nov 4 high) followed by 91.32 (Oct 29 high). Pound Sterling (GBP) Pound – 1.6755 : Initial support at 1.6617 (Nov 9 low) followed by 1.6467 (Nov 5 low). Initial resistance is now at 1.7043 (Aug 5 high) followed by 1.7332 (50% retrace of 2.1161 - 1.3503). Australian Dollar (AUD) Australian Dollar – 0.9300 : Initial support at 0.9092 (Nov 6 low) followed by the 0.9026 (Nov 5 low). Initial resistance is now at 0.9329 (Oct 21 high) followed by 0.9476 (Jul 08 high). Gold (XAU) Gold – 1103 : Initial support at 1087 (Nov 6 low) followed by 1080 (Nov 4 high). Initial resistance is now at 1129 (1026.60 plus 0.618 of 905.10-1070.80) followed by 1136 (1.618 retrace 930.34 - 1024.28 through 985). Oil Oil – 79.30 : Initial support at 78.00 (Intraday Support) followed by 75 (key Level). Initial resistance is now at 80 (Intraday resistance) followed by 82 (Oct High). Article with Image: Full Size Image occupying Whole width of Column
Categories: Forex Trading

November 9, 2009

17:25
Image Caption: Forex currency price chart of USD and JPY Image: Body: US Unemployment Rate passes 10% U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) a surprise jump in the October Unemployment Rate to above the psychological 10% barrier kept the rebound in investor confidence contained on Friday with the stock market ending unchanged and the Dollar on the back foot. The actually figure of -190k was only slightly worse than forecasts of -175k but enough for commentators to agree that the Fed will not be raising rates in the next 6 months. In US Stocks, DJIA +17 points closing at 10023, S&P +3 points closing at 1069 and NASDAQ +7 points closing at 2112. European Euro The Euro (EUR) traded briefly above the 1.4900 level as traders shrugged off the disappointing US jobs data to focus on the USD and US FED rates. Without heavy selling in the equity markets the Euro remained firm and closed at the 1.4850 level. EUR/JPY did struggle however as the Yen was broadly strong. September Industrial Orders were at 0.9% vs. 2.1% previously. Overall the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.4815 and a high of 1.4913 before closing at 1.4846. looking ahead, German Trade Balance forecast at 11.5bn vs. 10.6bn previously. Japanese Yen (JPY) The Japanese Yen (JPY) gained heavily against the dollar as the market began to once again favor the USD as the funding currency of choice. A weak US jobs number and lackluster equities meant crosses were at the mercy of the major and AUD/JPY and GBP/JPY slipped. Overall the USDJPY traded with a low of 89.62 and a high of 90.85 before closing the day around 89.85 in the New York session. Pound Sterling (GBP) The Sterling (GBP) was very contained tracking the euro down then up again after the US data but sticking to a tight range. The Pair is struggling to gain above the 1.6600 level but is finding solid support below 1.6500. EUR/GBP is also staying in a tight range within the 0.8900 figure waiting for further direction. Overall the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.6521 and a high of 1.6635 before closing the day at 1.6615 in the New York session. Australian Dollar (AUD) The Australian Dollar (AUD) was very strong as the market seized upon hawkish comments in the Quarterly Monetary Policy statement to argue for faster rate rises. Also noted in the report was the help that the strong AUD was having in keeping inflation down. Overall the AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.9093 and a high of 0.9197 before closing the US session at 0.9174. Oil & Gold Oil & Gold (XAU) broke above the $1100 level briefly in the US session. Overall trading with a low of USD$1088 and high of USD$1101 before ending the New York session at USD$1095 an ounce. Fell heavily on concerns US consumer demand will be weaker as Unemployment grows. Crude Oil was down $2.19 ending the New York session at $77.43. Technical Analysis: YEN Gained Heavily Against USD Euro (EUR) Euro – 1.4870 : Initial support at 1.4811 (Nov 5 low) followed by 1.4702 (Nov 4 low). Initial resistance is now located at 1.4927 (Oct 27 high) followed by 1.4959 (0.764 retrace of 1.5063-1.4624). Yen (JPY) Yen – 89.85 : Initial support is located at 89.62 (Nov 6 low) followed by 89.20 (Nov 2 low). Initial resistance is now at 91.32 (Nov 4 high) followed by 91.62 (Oct 29 high). Pound Sterling (GBP) Pound – 1.6650 : Initial support at 1.6467 (Nov 5 low) followed by 1.6402 (Nov 4 low). Initial resistance is now at 1.6693 (Oct 23 high) followed by 1.6742 (Sept 11 high). Australian Dollar (AUD) Australian Dollar – 0.9210 : Initial support at 0.9026 (Nov 5 low) followed by the 0.8971 (Nov 4 low). Initial resistance is now at 0.9218 (Oct 27 high) followed by 0.9329 (Oct 21 high). Gold (XAU) Gold – 1098 : Initial support at 1084 (Nov 5 low) followed by 1080 (Nov 4 high). Initial resistance is now at 1101 (Nov 6 high ) followed by 1107 (905.10 plus 1.618 of 864.97-990.00). Oil Oil – 77.80 : Initial support at 76.50 (Intraday Support) followed by 75 (key Level). Initial resistance is now at 78 (Intraday resistance) followed by 80 (Key Level). Article with Image: Full Size Image occupying Whole width of Column
Categories: Forex Trading

November 6, 2009

14:35
Image Caption: Forex currency price chart of GBP and USD Image: Body: US Unemployment Data Looming U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) with stocks rallying for a 4th day the market went back into 'risk on' mode and the USD was on the back foot. Weekly Jobless claims were 512k vs. 530k previously. Q3 Productivity at 9.5% was very strong vs. 6.5% forecast. In US Stocks, DJIA +203 points closing at 10005, S&P +20 points closing at 1066 and NASDAQ +49 points closing at 2105. Looking ahead, October Non Farm Payrolls forecast at -175k vs. -263k previously. The October Unemployment rate is forecast at 9.9% vs. 9.8% previously. European Euro The Euro (EUR) continued to find strength on dips as US stocks soared and the ECB was relatively upbeat at their ECB meeting were they held rates at 1.0%. The pair failed to track the gains completely on Wall st. as the market pauses ahead of the US Unemployment data tonight. Overall the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.4810 and a high of 1.4920 before closing at 1.4880. looking ahead, September Industrial Orders are forecast at 1% vs. 1.45 previously. Japanese Yen (JPY) The Japanese Yen (JPY) was strong is Asia as the Nikkei fell but then was sold for most of the day as the US had its biggest rally in 2 months. AUD/JPY and GBP/JPY led the rebound but the market was well contained again as the event risk of the NFP today contained risk appetite. Overall the USDJPY traded with a low of 89.97 and a high of 90.84 before closing the day around 90.75 in the New York session. Looking ahead, September Leading Indicators previously at 0.8%. Pound Sterling (GBP) The Sterling (GBP) shot higher as the BoE increased the Asset purchase program by 25bn vs. 50bn forecast. The BoE held rates at 0.5%. The market found resistance above 1.6600 and settled below the figure. EUR/GBP support was in the low 0.89's. GBP/JPY reclaimed the 150 Yen level. Overall the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.6639 and a high of 1.6464 before closing the day at 1.6580 in the New York session. Looking ahead, UK PPI Output prices are forecast at 0.3% vs. 0.5% m/m previously. Australian Dollar (AUD) The Australian Dollar (AUD) good data could not help the Aussie rally in Asia as AUD/JPY selling dragged the pair to day lows before a change in sentiment pushed the pair higher once again in the US. September Trade Balance at -1.85bn vs. -2.1bn forecast. Overall the AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.9023 and a high of 0.9127 before closing the US session at 0.9105. Looking ahead, RBA Monetary Policy Statement. Oil & Gold Oil & Gold (XAU) consolidated gains settling just under $1100 level. Overall trading with a low of USD$1083 and high of USD$1095 before ending the New York session at USD$1091 an ounce. Fell back below $80 a barrel on profit taking after recent 3 day rally. Crude Oil was down $0.78 ending the New York session at $79.62. Technical Analysis: GBP Shot Higher Euro (EUR) Euro – 1.4875 : Initial support at 1.4702 (Nov 4 low) followed by 1.4626 (Nov 3 low). Initial resistance is now located at 1.4917 (Nov 5 high) followed by 1.4927 (Oct 27 high). Yen (JPY) Yen – 90.85 : Initial support is located at 89.99 (Nov 5 low) followed by 89.20 (Nov 2 low). Initial resistance is now at 91.32 (Nov 4 high) followed by 91.62 (Oct 29 high). Pound Sterling (GBP) Pound – 1.6575 : Initial support at 1.6402 (Nov 4 low) followed by 1.6241 (Oct 19 low). Initial resistance is now at 1.6693 (Oct 23 high) followed by 1.6742 (Sept 11 high). Australian Dollar (AUD) Australian Dollar – 0.9110 : Initial support at 0.8971 (Nov 4 low) followed by the 0.8907 (Nov 2 low). Initial resistance is now at 0.9144 (Nov 4 high) followed by 0.9218 (Oct 27 high). Gold (XAU) Gold – 1091 : Initial support at 1080 (Nov 4 low) followed by 1055 (Nov 3 high). Initial resistance is now at 1097 (Nov 4 high ) followed by 1100 (Psychological level). Oil Oil – 79.80 : Initial support at 78.5 (Intraday Support) followed by 78.0 (Intraday support). Initial resistance is now at 81 (Nov 5 high) followed by 82 (October High). Article with Image: Full Size Image occupying Whole width of Column
Categories: Forex Trading

November 5, 2009

20:49
Image Caption: Forex currency price chart of XAU and USD Image: Body: FED remains Dovish, USD Weak U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) was on the back foot as stocks rallied around the world and the Federal Reserve left rates at 0.25% and stating that rates would remain low for an extended period of time. ADP October Employment Report was -203k vs. -188k previously. Also released, ISM Services forecast at 50.6 vs. 51.6 forecast. In US Stocks, DJIA +30 points closing at 9802, S&P +1 points closing at 1046 and NASDAQ -2 points closing at 2055. Looking ahead, Weekly Jobless Claims are forecast at 523k vs. 530k previously. European Euro The Euro (EUR) rallied for most of the day on continued strength in commodities and a rebound in stocks. September PPI was as forecast at -0.4%. EUR/JPY enjoyed solid gains although a late sell off in stocks induced profit taking. Overall the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.4701 and a high of 1.4911 before closing at 1.4880. Looking ahead, ECB rate announcement forecast to remain at 1.0%. Japanese Yen (JPY) The Japanese Yen (JPY) was very weak as the crosses began to rally and technical's turned against the Yen. USD/JPY struggled to hold above 91 Yen on a mixed response to the FOMC but remains supported on dips. EUR/JPY returned to the 135 figure. Overall the USDJPY traded with a low of 90.03 and a high of 91.34 before closing the day around 90.80 in the New York session. Pound Sterling (GBP) The Sterling (GBP) rallied above 1.6500 on improved risk appetite and strong GBP/JPY buying. October PMI Services was 56.9 vs. 55.4 previously. 1.6600 capped the topside but the market is well supported ahead of today's BoE meeting. Overall the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.6600 and a high of 1.6399 before closing the day at 1.6550 in the New York session. Looking ahead, BoE Rate meeting. Also released, September Industrial Production forecast at 1% vs. -2.5% previously. Australian Dollar (AUD) The Australian Dollar (AUD) was dented in Asia from poor September Retail Sales of -0.2% vs. +0.4% forecast. The dip below 0.9000 proved short lived and when the market continued to push higher the Aussie rebounded. AUD/JPY enjoyed the Yen weakness combined with the ongoing rally in gold. Overall the AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.8970 and a high of 0.9146 before closing the US session at 0.9105. Looking ahead, September Trade Balance forecast at -2100mln vs. -1524mln previously. Oil & Gold Oil & Gold (XAU) continued to push higher on yesterdays momentum nearing the $1100 level. Overall trading with a low of USD$1079 and high of USD$1098 before ending the New York session at USD$1092 an ounce. Broke above $80 a barrel as the rally accelerated. Crude Oil was up $0.80 ending the New York session at $80.40. Technical Analysis: FED Remains Dovish Euro (EUR) Euro – 1.4875 : Initial support at 1.4626 (Nov 3 low) followed by 1.4581 (Oct 5 low). Initial resistance is now located at 1.4909 (Nov 4 high) followed by 1.4927 (Oct 27 high) Yen (JPY) Yen – 90.80 : Initial support is located at 89.87 (Nov 3 low) followed by 89.20 (Oct 14 low). Initial resistance is now at 91.62 (Oct 29 high) followed by 92.32 (Oct 27 high). Pound Sterling (GBP) Pound – 1.6560 : Initial support at 1.6241 (Oct 19 low) followed by 1.6141(Sept 30 low). Initial resistance is now at 1.6604 (Oct 29 high) followed by 1.6693 (Oct 23 high). Australian Dollar (AUD) Australian Dollar – 0.9100 : Initial support at 0.8907 (Nov 2 low) followed by the 0.8866 (Oct 7 low). Initial resistance is now at 0.9144 (Nov 4 high) followed by 0.9218 (Oct 27 high). Gold (XAU) Gold – 1091 : Initial support at 1055 (Nov 3 low) followed by 1035 (Oct 30 high). Initial resistance is now at 1100 (Key level ) followed by 1114 (1.382 of 930.34 to 1024.28 from 985). Oil Oil – 80.40 : Initial support at 78.5 (Intraday Support) followed by 78.0 (Intraday support). Initial resistance is now at 81 (Nov 5 high) followed by 82 (October High). Article with Image: Full Size Image occupying Whole width of Column
Categories: Forex Trading

November 4, 2009

20:48
Image Caption: Forex currency price chart of EUR and USD Image: Body: Attention turns to FOMC U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) hit multi-week highs in Europe against a raft of currencies as banking worries put stock markets on the back foot. News of India buying gold and Warren Buffet making a large investment in US railways help the US reverse the market's direction and helped gold to rally to fresh year highs above $1080. September Factory Orders forecast at 0.8% were actually 0.9%. In US Stocks, DJIA -17 points closing at 9771, S&P +2 points closing at 1045 and NASDAQ +8 points closing at 2057. Looking ahead, US FOMC Rate decision widely expected to remain at 0.25% but with the market focused on the accompanying statement. Also released, ADP October Employment Report is forecast at -190k vs. -254k previously. European Euro The Euro (EUR) fell to fresh lows below 1.4650 as the Euro came under pressure from concerns about European and UK banking issues. Some analysts are beginning to view the recent Euro rally as nearing a top and are focusing on the downside for the first time in many months. Ongoing sovereign support is helping to slow the decent. EUR/JPY found support below 132 Yen. Overall the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.4625 and a high of 1.4813 before closing at 1.4720. Looking ahead, October PMI services forecast at 52.3 vs. 50.9 previously. Also released, EU September PPI forecast at -0.4% vs. 0.4% previously. Japanese Yen (JPY) The Japanese Yen (JPY) held up well in a risk adverse environment making solid gains in Asia and Europe on the Crosses but giving these up in the US session. USD/JPY remain muted as it cycled the 90 Yen level. AUD/JPY was in play as the market struggled with risk appetite. Overall the USDJPY traded with a low of 89.86 and a high of 90.61 before closing the day around 90.30 in the New York session. Pound Sterling (GBP) The Sterling (GBP) broke below 1.6300 as the market continued to focus on the downside ahead of BOE and in the midst of Banking concerns. A rebound in commodities and US stocks helped lift the pair from lows. Overall the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.6259 and a high of 1.6458 before closing the day at 1.6420 in the New York session. Looking ahead, October PMI is forecast at 55.5 vs. 55.3 previously. Australian Dollar (AUD) The Australian Dollar (AUD) a raise in rates could not help the Aussie from falling steadily after the announcement. A muted statement also raised concerns that a December rate rise is in doubt. A strong rebound in risk sentiment and fresh highs in Gold help the pair to lift a cent in the US session but the market is still very nervous. Overall the AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.8915 and a high of 0.9094 before closing the US session at 0.9000. UPDATE SEPTEMBER RETAIL SALES -0.2% vs. 0.4% forecast. Oil & Gold Oil & Gold (XAU) new highs above $1080 as India's purchase of 200 tonnes helped lift sentiment for the precious metal. Overall trading with a low of USD$1055 and high of USD$1088 before ending the New York session at USD$1084 an ounce. Rallied on the back of golds move higher. Crude Oil was up $1.47 ending the New York session at $79.60. Technical Analysis: USD Hit Multi-week Highs In Europe Euro (EUR) Euro – 1.4720 : Initial support at 1.4581 (Oct 5 low) followed by 1.4481 (Oct 2 low). Initial resistance is now located at 1.4859 (Oct 29 high) followed by 1.4927 (Oct 27 high) Yen (JPY) Yen – 90.30 : Initial support is located at 89.20 (Nov 2 low) followed by 88.84 (Oct 14 low). Initial resistance is now at 90.69 (Nov 2 high) followed by 91.62 (Oct 29 high). Pound Sterling (GBP) Pound – 1.6415 : Initial support at 1.6241 (Oct 19 low) followed by 1.6141(Sept 30 low). Initial resistance is now at 1.6478 (Nov 2 high) followed by 1.6604 (Oct 29 high). Australian Dollar (AUD) Australian Dollar – 0.9030 : Initial support at 0.8907 (Nov 2 low) followed by the 0.8866 (Oct 7 low). Initial resistance is now at 0.9122 (Nov 2 high) followed by 0.9218 (Oct 27 high). Gold (XAU) Gold – 1084 : Initial support at 1041 (Nov 2 low) followed by 1035 (Oct 30 high). Initial resistance is now at 1067 (Oct 20 high) followed by 1070 (Oct 14 high). Oil Oil – 79.50 : Initial support at 78.5 (Intraday Support) followed by 78.0 (Intraday support). Initial resistance is now at 80 (Key level) followed by 82 (October High). Article with Image: Full Size Image occupying Whole width of Column
Categories: Forex Trading

November 3, 2009

14:30
Image Caption: Forex currency price chart of USD and JPY Image: Body: US Manufacturing expands U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) was mixed as stocks remained volatile with good data not generating substantial gains in the stock markets. October ISM Manufacturing was 55.7 vs. 53 forecast. September Pending Home Sales gained 6.1%. The Dollar hit day highs at the start of Asia as the market opened Monday on a very shaky footing. In US Stocks, DJIA +76 points closing at 9789, S&P +7 points closing at 1043 and NASDAQ +4 points closing at 2049. Looking ahead, September Factory Orders are forecast at 0.8% vs. -0.8% previously. European Euro The Euro (EUR) tested below 1.4700 in Asia but rebounded well as stocks lifted off lows and China's PMI at 55 showed manufacturing expanded at the fastest pace in 18 months. The rally continued on similar data in the US before stocks once again came under pressure and pushed the Euro lower. EUR/JPY was especially volatile rallying from 131 to test 134 in New York. Overall the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.4682 and a high of 1.4847 before closing at 1.4765. Japanese Yen (JPY) The Japanese Yen (JPY) was extremely volatile with sharp selling in thin volume at the start of Asia leading to a test of low 89 Yen area before bouncing for the rest of the day. Crosses exaggerated the movement with all having 3+ Yen ranges. Overall the USDJPY traded with a low of 89.18 and a high of 90.72 before closing the day around 90.30 in the New York session. Looking ahead, Bank Holiday in Japan. Pound Sterling (GBP) The Sterling (GBP) was pressured at the start of the European session as the market focused on propsed UK bank break up plan and potential for the BOE to expand QE by up to 50bn pounds more on Thursday. October PMI Manufacturing at 53.7 vs. 50.1 forecast. Overall the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.6327 and a high of 1.6481 before closing the day at 1.6395 in the New York session. Australian Dollar (AUD) The Australian Dollar (AUD) touched fresh multi-week lows at .8905 before rebounding with the improving sentiment and manufacturing PMI's around the world. The commodity currency also enjoyed gains from the bounce in Oil and Gold seen overnight. Overall the AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.8904 and a high of 0.9125 before closing the US session at 0.9040. Looking ahead, RBA Interest rate meeting forecast to raise rates to 3.5% from 3.25% previously. Oil & Gold Oil & Gold (XAU) bounced as the USD weakened over the day. Overall trading with a low of USD$1041 and high of USD$1063 before ending the New York session at USD$1059 an ounce. Also bounced on improved global manufacturing data. Crude Oil was up $1.13 ending the New York session at $78.13. Technical Analysis: US Stocks Remained Volatile Euro (EUR) Euro – 1.4770 : Initial support at 1.4683 (Oct 29 low) followed by 1.4646 (Oct 6 low). Initial resistance is now located at 1.4859 (Oct 29 high) followed by 1.4927 (Oct 27 high) Yen (JPY) Yen – 90.35 : Initial support is located at 88.84 (Oct 14 low) followed by 88.01 (Oct 7 low). Initial resistance is now at 90.69 (Nov 2 high) followed by 91.82 (Oct 28 high). Pound Sterling (GBP) Pound – 1.6400 : Initial support at 1.6330 (Nov 2 low) followed by 1.6252 (Oct 26 low). Initial resistance is now at 1.6604 (Oct 29 high) followed by 1.6693 (Oct 23 high). Australian Dollar (AUD) Australian Dollar – 0.9040 : Initial support at 0.8866 (Oct 7 low) followed by the 0.8760 (Oct 6 low). Initial resistance is now at 0.9218 (Oct 27 high) followed by 0.9329 (Oct 21 high). Gold (XAU) Gold – 1058 : Initial support at 1035 (Oct 30 low) followed by 1026 (Oct 29 high). Initial resistance is now at 1067 (Oct 20 high) followed by 1070 (Oct 14 high). Oil Oil – 78.20 : Initial support at 76.20 (Intraday Support) followed by 75.25 (Intraday support). Initial resistance is now at 78.50 (previous support) followed by 80 (Major Level). Article with Image: Full Size Image occupying Whole width of Column
Categories: Forex Trading

November 2, 2009

17:30
Body: Large USD Rebound on Equity correction Last week’s Currency Trading Review The Dollar even a stunning 3.5% Q3 GDP could not help stock markets finish the week in positive territory as fresh banking concerns caused a spike in risk aversion. The VIX also known as the fear index climbed over 20% on Friday and commodities fell aggressively from recent highs. The Euro fell heavily from the 1.5000 levels as the sentiment turned and key levels were breached. German Unemployment Change was strong at -26k vs. 15k forecast. German Retail sales were weak though at -0.5% vs. 0.7% previously. The EUR/USD fell 1.94.% closing at 1.4721, after opening the week at 1.5007. The Japanese Yen was extremely strong but volatile as it outpaced the USD as the safe haven of choice. NZD/JPY fell over 7% and most crosses were under extreme pressure. USD/JPY finished at the key 90 Yen level but is technically under pressure as the rally failed. The USD/JPY fell -2.15 % at 90.10 after opening the week at 92.04. The GBP bucked the trend against all except the Yen with heavy EUR/GBP selling breaking the pair below 0.9000. Cable was able to shown a small rise as the pound rallied on positive data and M&A flows. October CBI realized Sales at 8 vs. 6 forecast. GBP/USD gained 0.85% closing at 1.6444 after opening at 1.6304. The AUD was heavily sold along with the NZD as the commodity currencies took the brunt of the sell off. AUD/JPY fell over 3 Yen twice during the week. Q3 CPI was at 1.0% vs. 0.9% forecast but was not strong enough to change the consensus of a 0.25% rate rise at this week's RBA meeting. The AUD/USD fell 2.63% at 0.8987 after opening at 0.9223. For the week starting 02/11/09. This Forex Trading Week Preview In the States; On Monday, October ISM Manufacturing is forecast at 53 vs. 52.6 previously. Also released, pending home sales forecast at 0% vs. 6.4% previously. On Tuesday, September Factory Orders are forecast at 1.0% vs. -0.85 previously. On Wednesday, ISM non-manufacturing is forecast at 51.6 vs. 50.9 previously. Also on Wednesday, FOMC Rate announcement forecast to remain at 0.25%. On Thursday, Q3 Productivity is forecast at 6% vs. 6.6% previously. Q3 Unit labor costs are forecast at -3.8% vs. -5.9% previously. Weekly Jobless claims are forecast at 520k vs. 530k previously. On Friday, US Nonfarm Unemployment is forecast at -175k vs. -263k previously and the Unemployment Rate is forecast 9.9% vs. 9.8%. We will provide our previews and reviews of these data releases in the daily summary. In the Eurozone; On Monday, EU PMI manufacturing is forecast at 50.7 in October while on Wednesday EU PMI Services is forecast at 52.3. On Wednesday, EU PPI forecast at -7.7% vs. -7.5%. On Thursday, ECB rate announcement forecast unchanged at 1.00%. On Friday, German September Factory Orders forecast at 1.0% vs. 1.4% previously. In the UK; On Monday, PMI manufacturing is forecast at 50 vs. 49.5 previously. On Wednesday, PMI services are forecast at 55.2 vs. 55.3 previously. On Thursday, BOE meeting forecast to remain at 0.5% with a 50bn rise in QE to 225bn pounds. On Friday, G20 meeting begins in Scotland. We will provide our previews and reviews of these data releases in the daily summary. In Japan; On Thursday, BOJ minutes released while on Friday Leading indicators are forecast at 92.5 vs. 91.2 previous. In Australia; On Tuesday, RBA meet and are forecast to raise rates to 3.5% vs. 3.25% previously. On Thursday, Retail Sales are forecast to rise 0.5% vs. 0.95 previously. On Friday, RBA governor Stevens gives a speech and September's trade balance is forecast at -2150mn vs. -1524mn previously. We will provide our previews and reviews of these data releases in the daily summary. Technical Analysis: Large USD Rebound Euro (EUR) Euro – 1.4730 : Initial support at 1.4683 (Oct 29 low) followed by 1.4646 (Oct 6 low). Initial resistance is now located at 1.4859 (Oct 29 high) followed by 1.4927 (Oct 27 high) Yen (JPY) Yen – 90.00 : Initial support is located at 89.93 (Oct 30 low) followed by 89.28 (Oct 15 low). Initial resistance is now at 91.82 (Oct 28 high) followed by 92.53 (Sept 21 high). Pound Sterling (GBP) Pound – 1.6450 : Initial support at 1.6339 (Oct 29 low) followed by 1.6252 (Oct 26 low). Initial resistance is now at 1.6604 (Oct 29 high) followed by 1.6693 (Oct 23 high). Australian Dollar (AUD) Australian Dollar – 0.9015 : Initial support at 0.8944 (Oct 29 low) followed by the 0.8866 (Oct 7 low). Initial resistance is now at 0.9218 (Oct 27 high) followed by 0.9329 (Oct 21 high). Gold (XAU) Gold – 1045 : Initial support at 1026 (Sept 29 low) followed by 1024 (Sept 17 high). Initial resistance is now at 1059 (Oct 25 high) followed by 1067 (Oct 20 high). Oil Oil – 76.90 : Initial support at 76.40 (Intraday Support) followed by 75.22 (Intraday support). Initial resistance is now at 78.00 (previous support) followed by 80 (Major Level).
Categories: Forex Trading
17:18
Image Caption: Forex currency price chart of AUD and USD Image: Body: Dark Clouds Return, Dollar Gains U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) was very strong as risk aversion came back into the market as concerns about CIT bankruptcy and weak personal spending -0.5% in September sent US stock markets down over 2.5%. Also of note to traders was the largest jump in the VIX index this year, up over 20% on the day. In US Stocks, DJIA +199 points closing at 9712, S&P -29 points closing at 1036 and NASDAQ -52 points closing at 2045. Looking ahead, October ISM Manufacturing is forecast at 53 vs. 52.6 previously. European Euro The Euro (EUR) after opening above 1.4800 in Asia the rebound stalled and profit taking turned in heavy Euro selling as US stocks fell heavily. October EU Inflation was -0.1% y/y as forecast. EU Unemployment Rate was 9.7% as forecast in September. Overall the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.4712 and a high of 1.4858 before closing at 1.4713. Looking ahead, October PMI Manufacturing is forecast 50.7 vs. 49.3 previously. Japanese Yen (JPY) The Japanese Yen (JPY) was once again the strongest currency outpacing the USD as the safe haven of choice when heavy unwinding of crosses dragged the major below the Key 90 Yen level. BOJ held at 0.1% but cut back the corporate bond buying program. September Unemployment at 5.3% vs. 5.5% forecast. Overall the USDJPY traded with a low of 89.93 and a high of 91.57 before closing the day around 90.00 in the New York session. Pound Sterling (GBP) The Sterling (GBP) held up better than most risk currencies but was still on the back foot as GBP/JPY selling weighed. October Nationwide House Prices were at 0.4% vs. 0.9% previously. Support at 1.6500 finally gave way and the pair finished below 1.6450. Overall the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.6410 and a high of 1.6578 before closing the day at 1.6415 in the New York session. Looking ahead, October PMI Manufacturing forecast at 50 vs. 49.5. Australian Dollar (AUD) The Australian Dollar (AUD) was down sharply after opening above 0.9150 but ending below the key 0.9000 level. The markets still trade the AUD with a strong correlation to equities, and even the spectra of a rate rise as Tuesday's RBA meeting failed to provide much support. Overall the AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.8980 and a high of 0.9180 before closing the US session at 0.8995. Oil & Gold Oil & Gold (XAU) was stronger than other commodities as fresh safe haven demand was sparked in a financial based risk aversion mood. Overall trading with a low of USD$1035 and high of USD$1049 before ending the New York session at USD$1045 an ounce. Was sold heavily on risk aversion and traders second guessing the strength of the stimulated US economy. Crude Oil was down $2.87 ending the New York session at $77.00. Technical Analysis: Risk Aversion Returned Euro (EUR) Euro – 1.4730 : Initial support at 1.4683 (Oct 29 low) followed by 1.4646 (Oct 6 low). Initial resistance is now located at 1.4859 (Oct 29 high) followed by 1.4927 (Oct 27 high) Yen (JPY) Yen – 90.00 : Initial support is located at 89.93 (Oct 30 low) followed by 89.28 (Oct 15 low). Initial resistance is now at 91.82 (Oct 28 high) followed by 92.53 (Sept 21 high). Pound Sterling (GBP) Pound – 1.6450 : Initial support at 1.6339 (Oct 29 low) followed by 1.6252 (Oct 26 low). Initial resistance is now at 1.6604 (Oct 29 high) followed by 1.6693 (Oct 23 high). Australian Dollar (AUD) Australian Dollar – 0.9015 : Initial support at 0.8944 (Oct 29 low) followed by the 0.8866 (Oct 7 low). Initial resistance is now at 0.9218 (Oct 27 high) followed by 0.9329 (Oct 21 high). Gold (XAU) Gold – 1045 : Initial support at 1026 (Sept 29 low) followed by 1024 (Sept 17 high). Initial resistance is now at 1059 (Oct 25 high) followed by 1067 (Oct 20 high). Oil Oil – 76.90 : Initial support at 76.40 (Intraday Support) followed by 75.22 (Intraday support). Initial resistance is now at 78.00 (previous support) followed by 80 (Major Level). Article with Image: Full Size Image occupying Whole width of Column
Categories: Forex Trading

October 30, 2009

16:26
Image Caption: Forex currency price chart of GBP and USD Image: Body: Sharp Bounce Rescues Bulls U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) gave back all the gains of the previous day as the US economy emerged from recession a blistering 3.5% pace in Q3. Major stimulus programs and large rebounds in asset values all helped the economy recover. Stocks soared and risk appetite came back to life. In US Stocks, DJIA +199 points closing at 9962, S&P +23 points closing at 1066 and NASDAQ +37 points closing at 2097. Looking ahead, September Core PCE Index previously at 0.2% vs. 0.1%. Chicago PMI for October is forecast at 49 vs. 46.1 previously. European Euro The Euro (EUR) stabilized in Asia on solid Central Bank support before gaining with the US data back above 1.4800. Helping sentiment towards the single currency was the better than expected German unemployment change of -15k vs. +15k forecast in October. Overall the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.4684 and a high of 1.4859 before closing at 1.4840. Looking ahead, October EU inflation is forecast at -0.1% vs. -0.3% previously. Japanese Yen (JPY) The Japanese Yen (JPY) weakened aggressively across the board as the downside attempt failed to break the key 90 Yen level on the USD/JPY and then a surge in US stocks sent the crosses up over 2%. AUD/JPY was up over 3% and GBP/JPY surged through the 150 Yen level. September Industrial Output Preliminary at 1.4% vs. 1.0% previously. Overall the USDJPY traded with a low of 90.25 and a high of 91.63 before closing the day around 91.35 in the New York session. Update September Unemployment at 5.3% vs. 5.5% forecast. Pound Sterling (GBP) The Sterling (GBP) built upon the solid base from Wednesday to gain aggressively against the Yen and the Dollar. Dealers are reporting large inflows into the UK as outside investors pick up cheap companies with the exchange rate currently so competitive. Overall the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.6339 and a high of 1.6604 before closing the day at 1.6550 in the New York session. Looking ahead, October Nationwide House Prices previously at 0.9% m/m. Australian Dollar (AUD) The Australian Dollar (AUD) was the leader on the way up as the heavily battered Aussie recovered strongly in the US session. With risk appetite back on and the Rate announcement on Tuesday looming the market is once again turning bullish on the commodity currency. Overall the AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.8944 and a high of 0.9182 before closing the US session at 0.9150. Oil & Gold Oil & Gold (XAU) gold rallied nearly $20 an ounce as the USD broadly weakened and Oil surged. Overall trading with a low of USD$1028 and high of USD$1047 before ending the New York session at USD$1047 an ounce. Oil rebounded strongly after US data confirmed the worlds largest economy was growing again. Crude Oil was up $2.41 ending the New York session at $79.87. Technical Analysis: Stocks Soared Euro (EUR) Euro – 1.4850 : Initial support at 1.4646 (Oct 6 low) followed by 1.4581 (Oct 5 low). Initial resistance is now located at 1.4859 (Oct 29 high) followed by 1.4927 (Oct 27 high) Yen (JPY) Yen – 91.50 : Initial support is located at 90.08 (Oct 20 low) followed by 89.28 (Oct 15 low). Initial resistance is now at 91.82 (Oct 28 high) followed by 92.53 (Sept 21 high). Pound Sterling (GBP) Pound – 1.6550 : Initial support at 1.6252 (Oct 26 low) followed by 1.6120 (Oct 8 low). Initial resistance is now at 1.6604 (Oct 29 high) followed by 1.6693 (Oct 23 high). Australian Dollar (AUD) Australian Dollar – 0.9150 : Initial support at 0.8866 (Oct 7 low) followed by the 0.8760 (Oct 6 low). Initial resistance is now at 0.9218 (Oct 27 high) followed by 0.9329 (Oct 21 high). Gold (XAU) Gold – 1047 : Initial support at 1024 (Sept 17 low) followed by 1000 (big figure). Initial resistance is now at 1047.85 (Oct 29 high) followed by 1067 (Oct 20 high). Oil Oil – 80.20 : Initial support at 80.00 (Intraday Support) followed by 78.50 (major level). Initial resistance is now at 81.10 (previous support) followed by 82.00 (Major Level). Article with Image: Wrapped Image Right Align
Categories: Forex Trading

October 29, 2009

15:01
Image Caption: Forex currency price chart of XAU and USD Image: Body: Market Plunges, Dollar Soars U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) was second only to the Yen as markets around the world were deep in the red and risk aversion came back into play. September Durable Goods Orders 1.0% vs. -2.6% previously. Hurting sentiment was the large drop in September Home Sales at 402k vs. 440k forecast. In US Stocks, DJIA -119 points closing at 9762, S&P -20 points closing at 1042 and NASDAQ -56 points closing at 2059. Looking ahead, Q3 GDP is forecast at 3.3% vs. -0.7% previously. Also released Weekly jobless claims forecast at 521k vs. 531k previously. European Euro The Euro (EUR) found support in Asia from sovereign buying but as US stocks continued to plunge and EUR/JPY selling intensified through the 135 level the market shunted another leg lower to the 1.4700 figure. German Import Prices were -0.9% vs. -0.6% forecast. Overall the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.4691 and a high of 1.4841 before closing at 1.4700. Looking ahead, October German Unemployment Forecast at 8.3% vs. 8.2% previously. Japanese Yen (JPY) The Japanese Yen (JPY) gained across the board as traders took risky trades off the table with the mounting global equity losses. USD/JPY reversed back through 91 Yen and AUD/JPY and NZD/JPY fell over 3% each. After a large run up over the past three weeks the markets were caught long. Overall the USDJPY traded with a low of 90.55 and a high of 91.73 before closing the day around 90.60 in the New York session. Update September Industrial Output Preliminary at 1.4% vs. 1.0% previously. Pound Sterling (GBP) The Sterling (GBP) was surprising resilient from very heavy EUR/GBP selling through the 0.9000 level. Cable held above 1.6300 and rallied at the start of US through 1.6400 before falling as US stocks slumped. GBP/JPY succumbed to Yen strength but was not as weak as expected. Overall the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.6286 and a high of 1.6467 before closing the day at 1.6380 in the New York session. Looking ahead, September Mortgage lending data forecast 0.8bn vs. 1.01bn previously. Australian Dollar (AUD) The Australian Dollar (AUD) was crushed under risk aversion even as CPI data came in stronger than expected. Q3 CPI 1.0% vs. 0.8% forecast. Heavy selling on AUD/JPY came through in Asia and continued throughout the day. Overall the AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.8963 and a high of 0.9207 before closing the US session at 0.8970. Oil & Gold Oil & Gold (XAU) fell in the face of USD strength but safe haven flows stemmed the loss. Overall trading with a low of USD$1026 and high of USD$1042 before ending the New York session at USD$1029 an ounce. Fell heavily on recovery concerns. Crude Oil was down $2.09 ending the New York session at $77.46. Technical Analysis: Market Plunges Euro (EUR) Euro – 1.4720 : Initial support at 1.4691 (Oct 28 low) followed by 1.4674 (Oct 9 low). Initial resistance is now located at 1.4927 (Oct 27 high) followed by 1.5063 (Oct 26 high) Yen (JPY) Yen – 90.70 : Initial support is located at 90.49 (Oct 21 low) followed by 90.08 (Oct 20 low). Initial resistance is now at 92.53 (Sept 21 high) followed by 93.3 (Sept 7 high). Pound Sterling (GBP) Pound – 1.6380 : Initial support at 1.6252 (Oct 26 low) followed by 1.6120 (Oct 8 low). Initial resistance is now at 1.6467 (Oct 28 high) followed by 1.6533 (61.8% retrace 1.7043 - 1.5708). Australian Dollar (AUD) Australian Dollar – 0.8990 : Initial support at 0.8963 (Oct 28 low) followed by the 0.8866 (Oct 7 low). Initial resistance is now at 0.9218 (Oct 27 high) followed by 0.9329 (Oct 21 high). Gold (XAU) Gold – 1028 : Initial support at 1026.8 (Oct 27 low) followed by 1024 (Sep 17). Initial resistance is now at 1043 (Oct 27 high) followed by 1067 (Oct 20 high). Oil Oil – 77.30 : Initial support at 76.50 (Intraday Support) followed by 75 (major level). Initial resistance is now at 79 ( previous support) followed by 80.00 (Major Level). Article with Image: Full Size Image occupying Whole width of Column
Categories: Forex Trading